Abstract
This in-silico feasibility analysis discloses, as defensive prior art (CC BY 4.0), a hypothetical lyophilized presentation of live-attenuated measles vaccine designed to ease the 2-8 C cold-chain dependence that hampers elimination efforts in low- and middle-income countries. No wet-lab viral-titre, immunogenicity, or stability data are generated; all numerical predictions are computational extrapolations from peer-reviewed parameters. At elevated temperature the dominant failure mode is viral inactivation via capsid denaturation and envelope/genome damage; the realistic target is the WHO PQS VVM30 / Category 30 designation (30 days at 37 C with <= 1 log titre loss). The formulation embeds live-attenuated measles virus (MV-EZ or comparable) in an amorphous trehalose-pullulan glass (about 80/15 w/w), reconstituted on use. Feasibility is assessed through five analyses: a viral-inactivation activation-energy Bayesian prior from published measles thermal data (Galazka 1998) with morbillivirus/rotavirus/Sabin-poliovirus process comparators (Worrall 2000; Madan 2018; Shin 2018); a PyMC NUTS titre-retention posterior; a Couchman-Karasz mixed-glass Tg (about 80-88 C anhydrous); a Tang-Pikal lyophilization-cycle design (shelf <= -32 C, <= 50 mTorr); and a trehalose-protein / capsid-sugar molecular-dynamics literature synthesis. The benefit is a low-cost, off-patent, cold-chain-independent vaccine presentation kept in the public domain. Acknowledged prior art (Xerovac, heat-stable rotavirus, thermostable Sabin IPV, WHO PQS VVM30) is non-overlapping; no scCO2 desiccation step is claimed; genome-level damage is acknowledged as a separate pathway. This is a prior-art disclosure, not deployment, regulatory, or clinical guidance.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Recommended Citation
chuenglertsiri, chaiyapat and Chen, Pattrick, "Computational Assessment of Live-Attenuated Measles Vaccine Stability in a Trehalose–Pullulan Glass Matrix: Bayesian Modeling of Published Viral Thermal-Inactivation Kinetics with Trehalose–Capsid Molecular Dynamics Literature Synthesis", Technical Disclosure Commons, ()
https://www.tdcommons.org/dpubs_series/10551